Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms
How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk
(Sprache: Englisch)
"War. Inflation. Recession. Pandemic. The semblance of macroeconomic stability is long gone, with the volatility of recent years challenging leaders and companies to preserve and create value as they navigate the business landscape. When turmoil hits,...
Erscheint am 09.07.2024
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"War. Inflation. Recession. Pandemic. The semblance of macroeconomic stability is long gone, with the volatility of recent years challenging leaders and companies to preserve and create value as they navigate the business landscape. When turmoil hits, executives and investors face notoriously unreliable macroeconomic forecasts, whipsawing data, and contradictory opinions. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral-or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected. Leaders must also assess the doom-laden public macroeconomic discourse, which habitually presents worst-case scenarios as foregone conclusions. How can executives avoid these traps and make better strategic decisions? In this incisive, perspective-shifting book, BCG Global Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to analyze and understand the macroeconomy-what they call "regime analysis"-that pushes beyond conventional model-based prediction to emphasize structural context and judgment. Focusing on what it takes for macroeconomic regimes to break, they apply their approach to key risks in the real economy, financial structures, and geopolitical arrangements to help senior executives and investors assess the true risks of their economic context and to build their capacity to respond to changing conditions more effectively. With rational optimism rather than gloom, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms speaks to the key macro debates and controversies that shape our time, and it empowers leaders with the analytical skills to assess and judge macroeconomic risks for themselves, with a new way of thinking that will continue to apply as risks change over time"--
Autoren-Porträt von Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Paul Swartz
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is BCG's Global Chief Economist and a managing director and partner in the firm's New York office.Paul Swartz is Senior Economist and executive director at BCG. He coleads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute in New York.
The authors use their ongoing tactical and strategic research to advise executives and investors on macroeconomic risk, and they frequently publish and comment on the macroeconomy in Harvard Business Review, Fortune, World Economic Forum Agenda, and other business publications.
Bibliographische Angaben
- Autoren: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak , Paul Swartz
- 2024, VIII, 296 Seiten, Masse: 16,4 x 23,9 cm, Leinen, Englisch
- Verlag: Harvard Business Review Press
- ISBN-10: 1647825407
- ISBN-13: 9781647825409
- Erscheinungsdatum: 09.07.2024
Sprache:
Englisch
Pressezitat
"...this is a stimulating primer on how business leaders can keep abreast of changing economic tides." - Publisher's WeeklyAdvance Praise for Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms:
"A provocative, pragmatic, and didactic take on a topic that is top of mind for corporate leaders around the world. A rich tapestry of insight . . . for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of the intricacies of macroeconomics." - Andre Maciel, Global CFO, Kraft Heinz
"Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms brings great clarity to the macroeconomic realities leaders need to understand . . . This book helped ground my thinking and understanding of global uncertainties." - Miki Tsusaka, President, Microsoft Japan
"The authors refreshingly argue that it is misplaced to believe in silver-bullet models. With this book, everyone can learn to navigate what may come." - Ali Dibadj, CEO, Janus Henderson
"A valuable framework to improve decision-making in an uncertain world. The authors replace the false precision of point forecasts with an analytical focus on the economic drivers that shape risk." - Tom Luddy, former Chief Investment Officer, J.P. Morgan Investment Management
"A tour de force! The authors combine the skills of economist, Wall Street analyst, and historian to bring a unique perspective to the issues that drive economic risk. And an enjoyable read to boot!" - Colin McGranahan, Global Director of Research, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
"Timeless, compelling, and thought-provoking, the book also provides a framework for strengthening your own judgment." - Frank Brosens, member of the Board of Directors, Peterson Institute of International Economics; cofounder, Taconic Capital
"A vital guide to thinking about macroeconomic risks." - Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
... mehr
"A compass for navigating macroeconomic risk. . . . A must-read for those seeking a nuanced understanding of macroeconomics." - Hon. Bill Morneau, former Minister of Finance, Canada
"A great book . . . The focus on underlying drivers to form judgments I found to be very impactful." - Thomas Sweet, former CFO, Dell Technologies
"A compass for navigating macroeconomic risk. . . . A must-read for those seeking a nuanced understanding of macroeconomics." - Hon. Bill Morneau, former Minister of Finance, Canada
"A great book . . . The focus on underlying drivers to form judgments I found to be very impactful." - Thomas Sweet, former CFO, Dell Technologies
... weniger
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